The tenth Manama Dialogue has been an excellent opportunity to reflect on the changing fortunes of the region over the past ten years. What was most interesting to Nicholas Redman, Senior Fellow for Geopolitical Risk and Economic Security, was how some regional powers have experienced both a rise and a fall in that time.
In 2004, the first year of the Dialogue, Egypt was a strong, self-confident, militarily well-prepared leader in the region. Now, as we have seen during the discussions at the summit, Egypt is looking to in lock-step with its neighbours, happy to follow rather than lead. As the Egyptian foreign minister has made clear, Egypt is looking to move in unison rather than forge ahead.
The fortunes of Iraq over the last ten to fifteen years have changed dramatically. Before the 2003 invasion Iraq was military strong, an agitator, a threat. Now it is squeezed between the growing strength of Iran on the one hand and the Gulf states on the other. Iraq needs and wants to bridge the divide between those two powers, most especially in order to avoid being caught in the middle of a tense regional standoff.
These reflections indicate that any great nation can rise and fall, and in fact the strength and power of a country is based less on population and military prowess but on internal cohesion. Without strong political will and effective government, it is very difficult to leverage any advantages that the country may be blessed with, be it natural resources, a large population or a strategic location.
defence logistics agency Manama Voices : Nick Redman - the changing fortunes of regional powers | |
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